Le Bilan mondial de l’Accord de Paris a sonné !


Article 14 of the Paris Agreement provides for a Global Review of the implementation of this agreement in order to assess collective progress towards achieving its long-term objectives. It will see the light of day during COP28 in Dubai which opens this Thursday, November 30.

It is almost time to take stock of the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement. And report after report, the observation is clear: the world is currently heading towards a warming of +2.7°C. The 100 billion dollars in aid promised by developed countries in 2009 to countries in the South from 2020 have still not been met. The challenge is great: will we be able to strengthen the ability to adapt ? Make financial flows compatible with the low-carbon development trajectory? And will we be able to reach a peak in global emissions before 2030? The Global Assessment, which must be adopted at the end of COP28 in Dubai on December 12, will ensure this.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries have made commitments to reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions. These are nationally determined contributions (CDN, or National Determined Contribution, NDC). “This global assessment is intended to inform the next series of NDCs to be submitted by the Parties to the Paris Agreement in 2025”, shares Mark Tuddenham, information manager at CITEPA (Interprofessional Technical Center for Atmospheric Pollution Studies) and expert in international climate negotiations. They will run until 2035 or 2040, depending on the country’s preference.

A technical and political assessment

In September 2023, the United Nations body responsible for climate change, the UNFCCC (also called UN Climate) published a technical synthesis report. Although it does not provide any new data in terms of emissions or projections compared to the latest IPCC report and the UNEP “Gap report”, it provides an overview in terms of climate efforts on mitigation, adaptation and finance through 17 key messages. “The overall conclusion is unequivocal: much greater action on all fronts and by all actors is needed to achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”summarizes Mark Tuddenham.

The work of this first Global Assessment will end at COP28 in Dubai. After the technical evaluation, it is time for political negotiations. “The political phase will be decisive and delicate. The question is how these technical results will be interpreted and materialized on a political level and the associated level of ambition.avance Mark Tuddenham.

What should we expect?

A series of high-level events, as well as meetings between heads of state, are expected to result in key policy recommendations. “This should lead to the adoption of a specific decision of the CMA-5 (5th meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement, Editor’s note) and a political declaration by the ministers and heads of state and government assembled to Dubai, warns Mark Tuddenham. These key recommendations should be considered by States when updating their NDC. »

Ahead of COP28, the expert notes “a broad consensus on the fact that climate action has not been sufficient and that all Parties must strengthen it and strengthen support for developing countries”. However, “There are divergent views on the questions of how to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and how to distribute reduction and financing efforts. » The negotiations, which will last 15 days, should make it possible to arrive at a common position.

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